Power generation from gas-fired power plants in Germany rose this week to around 13 GW on a daily average, the highest level since February this year. Cold temperatures and weak wind power generation this week led to strong demand for gas in the electricity sector.
Until the summer of 2024, the daily average electricity output of gas-fired power plants in Germany only exceeded 14 GW in isolated cases. Since the winter of 2024, with several periods of low wind and low sunlight, and also over the course of the last few months, electricity output has risen to significantly higher levels on a daily basis. The peak value of 17.5 GW was reached during the period of low wind and low sunlight in January 2025.
Intraday variability on the rise
Not only the peak values in the daily average, but also the intraday flexibility requirements for gas-fired power plants are becoming increasingly important for the electricity market.
This difference between the intraday minimum and maximum power requirements of gas-fired power plants, known as intraday variability, rose to over 10 GW on several days this year. The flexibility output of gas-fired power plants has thus roughly doubled this year compared to 2020.
For example, on October 13 this year, the electricity output of German gas-fired power plants rose from around 2 GW to over 12 GW within 6 hours. The reason for this was a significant decline in wind power production during this period due to a lull in the wind.
Reasons for the increase
In 2020, the installed capacity of coal and nuclear power plants combined was around 50 GW. With the shutdown of the last nuclear power plants in 2023 and the gradual phase-out of coal-fired power generation, the installed capacity of coal-fired power plants will fall to around 30 GW in 2025.
Wind and solar power will be expanded from around 105 GW during this period to over 170 GW in 2025. The greater dependence on variable and weather-dependent renewable energy will therefore increase the need for flexibility in gas-fired power plants.
Federal government plans to expand gas-fired power plants
The installed capacity of gas-fired power plants in Germany will only increase by 3 GW between 2020 and 2025, reaching 35.5 GW in 2025. Last week, the federal government decided to expand the power plant fleet by a further 8 GW by the early 2030s.
Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Katharina Reiche was thus unable to push through her demand for at least 20 GW of additional capacity. Unfortunately, according to the government decision, only 2 GW of the planned 8 GW will be open to all technologies and only 2 GW will be hydrogen-compatible.
This shows that the importance of gas-based power generation in Germany will continue to grow in the coming years. This could also lead to further interaction between trading prices on the electricity and gas markets.